[15 July 2024]
The Cocoa price tripled in six months from autumn 2023 to February 2024.
So what now?
Some have predicted that the Cocoa price will continue to skyrocket, and therefore we look a little closer here today at what the technical picture now indicates about the further development of the Cocoa price going forward.
First a little about Cocoa Futures:
The Cocoa contract is the world benchmark for the global Cocoa market.
The contract prices the physical delivery of exchange-grade product from a variety of African, Asian and Central and South American origins to any of five US delivery ports.
Cocoa is traded on New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London.
The prices in New York are based on the South-Asian market and prices in London are based on Cocoa from Africa.
The size of each Cocoa contract on the NYMEX is 10 metric tons.
The biggest producers of cocoa are Ivory Coast and Ghana which together account for more than 60% of the world’s output. Other major producers include: Indonesia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ecuador and Brazil.
Although Cocoa is one of the world’s smallest soft commodity markets, it has global implications on food and candy producers, and the retail industry.
Cocoa prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments.
Technical Analysis of Cocoa Futures:
Technical Analysis of Cocoa Futures:
If we first look at the short-term picture now for Cocoa futures, then the Cocoa-price is moving within a right-angled descending triangle formation, which indicates further decline going forward both in the short and medium term for Cocoa Futures. There is now resistance around the USD 8,600 level (cf. chart) and the technical picture signals decline from this level, and a new test soon of the now important technical support level around USD 6,800. Should there be a break down from the aforementioned right-angled descending triangle formation, and a break down below the now very important technical support level around USD 6,800. Yes, then a strong technical sell signal will be triggered for Cocoa Futures, which then, and according to the long-term trend (cf. weekly chart) will then be able to fall all the way down towards the lower trend line in the long-term rising trend, and down towards around USD 3,700 (cf. weekly chart). Important technical levels to watch in the near term for Cocoa futures are whether there should be an established break above the USD 8,600 level, or whether there should be an established break below the USD 6,800 level. These are two important technical levels now in the short term to keep an eye on for Cocoa Futures, and an established breach of one of these two now important technical levels, yes it will help give new signals about the further development going forward for Cocoa Futures . As the overall technical picture for Cocoa Futures looks as of today, it is indicated that Cocoa Futures will fall back into the previous uptrend, and have a strong correction down towards the support level at the lower trendline in this long-term uptrend. That would mean a strong correction down from the current level for Cocoa Futures at USD 8,560 and down towards USD 3,300 - 3,700.
NB! Remember to have read and understood the disclaimer.
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